The United States and Israel have developed detailed military plans for renewed strikes on Iran following the November 3 midterm elections, according to reporting from The New York Times published on the evening of October 21, citing American officials and others briefed on the deliberations. The story, now trending per news coverage worldwide, describes a short, intensive campaign concept that would last roughly three days and strike Iran's nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and missile and drone arsenal.

The two militaries have stepped up joint exercises in preparation, including flights over Iraq to rehearse potential strike maneuvers. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also discussed the plans with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his unannounced visit to Israel this week, according to the report. The disclosure lands in an already volatile week: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy claimed that seven oil tankers were damaged in and around the Strait of Hormuz overnight, and the US has been pulling some diplomats and their families out of its Saudi missions as Houthi attacks on the kingdom continue.

What the plans reportedly include

According to the Times' account, US and Israeli planners envision a brief but intense bombing campaign rather than a prolonged war. Likely targets include:

  • Iran's nuclear facilities — potentially including deeply buried sites. One report citing the Times mentioned planning for an attack on Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear site buried in granite.
  • Energy infrastructure — though some officials suggested oil refineries and export infrastructure might be deliberately avoided to limit spikes in US gasoline prices.
  • Missile and drone capabilities — the arsenals Iran has used throughout the conflict that began in February 2026.

Some military strategists cited in the coverage believe a three-day campaign could inflict enough economic damage to force Iran back to the negotiating table. A senior adviser to Iran's negotiator, Mahdi Mohammadi, dismissed the idea of a decisive 72-hour US campaign as fantasy.

A timeline of postponed strikes

The October reporting fits a pattern of Trump repeatedly authorizing preparations and then holding back, as covered in earlier reporting:

  • In early October, Axios reported the Pentagon had ordered US Central Command to finish preparations for a possible resumption of operations against Iran.
  • On October 8, Trump publicly stated the US would not resume bombing before the midterms, while maintaining the naval blockade and economic pressure on Tehran. The financial and energy analysis in the latest reports describes this as a record amount of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz despite the tension.
  • Around October 13, Axios reported conversations between Trump and Netanyahu about a new offensive, with plans initially considered even before the two countries' elections.
  • The Financial Times had earlier reported that Netanyahu drew up plans for new strikes but met opposition from Trump, who ruled them out before the midterms.

Trump himself has said publicly that "something will happen soon," keeping the option of strikes alive. A White House official told the Times the administration does not comment on military plans "that may or may not exist," and the reporting stresses it is far from certain Trump will approve a fresh offensive — diplomatic efforts with Iran are ongoing.

The buildup behind the plans

The Times reports that the full US military buildup, including three aircraft carriers, will not be complete until early November. That timeline is part of why the reported window for any operation opens after the vote: the forces would only be fully in place by then.

Israel's own political calendar adds another wrinkle. Israel votes on October 27. Analysts note that if Netanyahu loses, he becomes a caretaker prime minister, which experts say would limit his authority to launch a war — a factor that may shape the timing of any joint action as well.

How Iran says it would respond

Tehran has not stayed quiet. Iranian officials have threatened that any renewed attack would trigger a broader response, and that a retaliation would not be brief. Analysts close to the Iranian government have warned that targets could include:

  • Saudi oil refineries — Tehran analyst Peiman Salehi told the Times that oil prices are Iran's best lever against Trump, with retaliation designed to drive energy prices higher.
  • Data centers and undersea communications cables — a newer dimension of Iran's threatened response cited in the coverage.
  • US military bases across the region — the IRGC Navy's statement this week explicitly warned the US against escorting tankers through what it calls "illegal passages."

Market analysts noted that oil is the most exposed asset: the planning points to a window for renewed strikes from early November, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices. Brent crude has been trading near $109, and fresh reports of burning tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pushed prices higher this week. For context on the tanker escalation, see our coverage of Iran's claim that seven oil tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz.

Context: the Iran conflict since February

The February-to-April campaign of 2026 made no significant progress in negotiations and pushed up energy prices and global inflation, according to the coverage — a cautionary precedent for anyone weighing what a new round of strikes would achieve. The current confrontation has kept escalating in parallel ways:

The Wall Street Journal reported in September that Trump expects to resume bombing after the vote, and market commentators have noted Trump's record of cancelling strikes at the last minute means oil and haven assets such as gold will likely keep swinging between pricing escalation and diplomacy.

What happens next

The honest read is that two things are true at once: the military planning is real and increasingly detailed, and approval is not guaranteed. The key dates to watch are Israel's October 27 election and the US midterms on November 3. If Netanyahu remains in power after his election and Trump gives the order after the midterms, the machinery described in the reporting is designed to move quickly. If diplomacy yields movement first — or if the elections change the political calculus — the plans stay on the shelf, as they have before.

Sources

The New York Times (via syndicated summaries), Anadolu Agency, Investing.com, Reuters, Axios, The Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, GSRRA, Pollar News.

Frequently asked questions

Are the US and Israel actually planning to strike Iran after the midterms?

According to a New York Times report published October 21, 2026, citing US officials and people briefed on the deliberations, the two militaries have drawn up detailed plans for renewed strikes after the November 3 midterm elections. However, the report stresses Trump has not approved a new operation, and a White House official said the administration does not comment on military plans that 'may or may not exist.' Planning is real; approval is not certain.

What would the strikes target?

The reported plans describe a short, intensive campaign of about three days targeting Iran's nuclear facilities (potentially including deeply buried sites like Pickaxe Mountain), energy infrastructure, and missile and drone stockpiles. Some officials suggest oil refineries and export infrastructure might be spared to limit gasoline price rises.

Why wait until after the November 3 midterms?

Three factors converge on that timing: the full US military buildup, including three aircraft carriers, is expected to be in place only by early November; Israel's own election on October 27 could leave Netanyahu as a caretaker with limited war-making authority if he loses; and Trump has repeatedly ruled out major strikes before the US vote while keeping the naval blockade and economic pressure in place.

How would Iran respond to new strikes?

Iranian officials have warned that any renewed attack would trigger a broader, non-brief response. Analysts cite threatened targets including Saudi oil refineries, data centers, undersea internet cables, and US military bases across the region. Iran analyst Peiman Salehi told the Times that oil prices are Tehran's best lever, with retaliation designed to drive energy prices higher.

Has the US tried strikes on Iran before this year?

Yes. A US campaign between February and April 2026 — the start of the Iran conflict — made no significant progress in negotiations and pushed up energy prices and global inflation, according to the coverage. Since then Trump has repeatedly prepared for renewed strikes (including in early October) and cancelled them at the last minute, including a last-minute postponement after he claimed 'productive' talks.