RBA Rate Decision November 2026 Due Today: Markets Expect a Rise to 4.85%

The RBA rate decision November 2026 is due today, Tuesday 3 November, at 2:30pm AEDT (03:30 UTC, 9:00am IST), and the market has made up its mind about what will happen. All four of Australia's major banks — Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB and ANZ — expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent. Market pricing puts the chance of a rise at about 85 to 87 percent. If the expected rise is delivered, it would be the fifth increase of 2026, after rises in February, March, May and September, and it would take the cash rate to its highest level since 2008. Nothing is decided until the Reserve Bank announces it, and the decision comes with a new Statement on Monetary Policy and updated forecasts for inflation, unemployment and growth — which is where the real news may lie.

RBA Rate Decision November 2026: What Is Expected Today

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board meets over 2 and 3 November and announces its decision at 2:30pm Sydney time, alongside the Statement on Monetary Policy. Governor Michele Bullock holds a press conference an hour later. The expectation of a rise is unusually unanimous: the four major banks, which do not always agree, are speaking with one voice, and market pricing moved from below 20 percent in mid-October to about 85 to 87 percent after the September inflation figures. Because the hike is so heavily priced, the Australian dollar is likely to move on the forecasts and the guidance about what comes next, not on the decision itself. Traders will read the Statement on Monetary Policy for any change in the bank's view of how much more tightening is needed.

The timing adds colour: the decision falls on Melbourne Cup Day, the first Tuesday in November, which is a public holiday in Melbourne and the day of Australia's most famous horse race. The coincidence is a quirk of the calendar, not a policy signal, but it means the decision lands on a day when much of the country is watching the race rather than the bank. For households, the timing matters less than the number. The cash rate currently stands at 4.60 percent, after a 25-basis-point increase on 29 September 2026, and a rise to 4.85 percent would take it to its highest since 2008, before the global financial crisis.

Why the RBA Is Expected to Raise Rates

The case for a rise strengthened sharply after the September inflation figures, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 28 October. Headline inflation rose to 4.3 percent over the 12 months to September, up from 4.0 percent in August, and the quarterly rise was 1.3 percent. The trimmed mean, the Reserve Bank's preferred measure of underlying inflation, rose 1.0 percent over the September quarter, against the bank's own August forecast of 0.8 percent, and 3.6 percent over the year on the monthly series. Both figures were hotter than expected, and they reinforced concerns that inflation is proving stickier than the central bank had hoped when it paused its rate-hiking cycle earlier in the year.

Housing was the largest contributor to annual inflation, rising 5.2 percent, while transport rose 8.7 percent, driven by higher automotive fuel prices. Fuel is excluded from the trimmed mean, which is why headline inflation at 4.3 percent runs well above the trimmed mean at 3.6 percent. Unemployment sits at 4.7 percent. KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne noted that consumer prices have now risen by a cumulative 30 percent since the start of the Covid pandemic, a measure of how much household budgets have been squeezed. The Reserve Bank said after its September decision that it will raise rates further if needed, and a result above its own forecast matters: the bank's credibility rests on acting when its own numbers are beaten.

RBA Rate Decision November 2026: What It Means for Mortgages

For borrowers, a 25-basis-point rise feeds through to variable mortgage rates, usually within days, as banks pass the increase to customers. The arithmetic is simple: a rise of 0.25 percent adds about $125 a month in interest on a $600,000 loan balance, before any change in the repayment schedule. For a household already carrying a large mortgage, that is a real increase on top of four rises this year and 13 increases since May 2022. The cumulative weight of those rises is part of what the Reserve Bank must weigh: the Commonwealth Bank expects the bank's updated forecasts, due alongside the November decision, to show higher inflation projections but also to downgrade GDP growth forecasts and lift unemployment projections, painting a picture of an economy beginning to feel the strain.

The debate has already shifted from whether the bank will hike to what happens after it. Commonwealth Bank and Westpac are working from a base case of a single hike followed by an extended hold, with the Reserve Bank expected to remain on the sidelines at its December and February meetings while policymakers wait for clearer evidence of how the economy is absorbing the cumulative impact of higher rates. Westpac sees increased risk of another rise, most likely in February, and UBS judges two more rises, to 5.10 percent, more likely than none. The split matters for borrowers: a single hike followed by a hold is a very different year from a hiking cycle that runs into 2027. For context on how other central banks are moving, see our reports on the European Central Bank holding rates in October, the US Federal Reserve's October hold and New Zealand holding rates at 2.75 percent.

What Comes After November

November is one of the four quarterly meetings, so the decision comes with the Statement on Monetary Policy and its new forecasts. Those forecasts will show whether the bank thinks inflation is close to peaking or still has further to run, and whether it expects unemployment to rise as higher rates bite. If the forecasts show inflation staying above target for longer, the market will price more hikes; if they show a peak, the talk will turn to how long the hold lasts. Either way, the decision due today is unlikely to be the last word. The bank meets again in December, and the February meeting will be the first of 2027. For now, the expectation is clear: a rise to 4.85 percent today, the highest cash rate since 2008, with the argument about what comes next starting the moment the decision is announced.