European gas prices touched €100 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, for the first time since December 2022. The Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub, the benchmark for gas in Europe, briefly traded at €100 per MWh at around 13:35 GMT, up around 4% from the previous session, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported by Reuters. The milestone arrived as Europe enters the heating season with disrupted liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the Middle East, unusually thin gas storage, and growing concern about escalation involving the United States and Iran. It is a price milestone, trending per news coverage, not an announcement of a shortage — and the reasons behind it matter more than the round number itself.
The level is still well below the record of roughly €340 per MWh reached during the 2022 energy crisis, but it is roughly triple the level of around €32 at which the contract stood before the conflict involving Iran escalated in late February 2026, according to Euronews. That speed of increase, rather than the €100 figure alone, is why traders, governments and households are paying attention. Gas is not only a heating fuel in Europe: gas-fired power stations often set the price of electricity at times of highest demand, so a sustained rise in wholesale gas can feed through to power bills and to energy-intensive industry.
What Happened to European Gas Prices on 28 October 2026?
Reports during Wednesday put the benchmark at slightly different levels as the price moved through the day, which is normal for a traded contract. Reuters reported the brief trade at €100 per MWh at around 13:35 GMT. Euronews reported €100.37 per MWh at 16:00 Central European Time, up more than 4% on the day, while other intraday reporting put the contract at €100.24 to €100.45. The consistent point across the reports is the same: the contract crossed €100 for the first time since December 2022, rising by around 4% or more on the day.
The milestone came only hours after the European Union's energy chief spoke in Brussels. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen told reporters on Wednesday morning, after a meeting with European oil refiners, that Europe faced another energy crisis and a difficult winter. "Once again, due to geopolitical turbulence, Europe faces another energy crisis," he said, according to Euronews. "We know that this winter will be difficult for European citizens and for our economy in general," he added, saying fuel bills in the EU were "skyrocketing". The European Commission also sees the worldwide diesel market staying tight well into 2027, and it wants to boost output at European refineries, around a quarter of which have closed over the past two decades.
Power prices moved with gas. The German front-year baseload electricity contract rose 1.7% to €159.30 per MWh, its highest since June 2023, while the French equivalent was at a near two-year high of €122.50 per MWh, according to Reuters reporting. Those moves do not mean every household bill rises by the same amount on the same day, but they show how a gas shock can widen quickly into the wider energy market when gas-fired generation is setting the marginal price.
Why Are European Gas Prices Rising? 5 Reasons Behind the €100 Jump
Five pressures came together on 28 October: disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, fear of further escalation, low storage, the arrival of winter demand, and a tight global market in which Europe must compete with Asia for the cargoes that are available. None of them alone explains a move of this size. Together, they left traders with little cushion against bad news.
1. LNG supplies from the Gulf remain disrupted. About one-fifth of global LNG trade normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency, cited in reporting on the price rise. Disruptions to shipping and LNG flows from the Middle East, including exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, have held up a large share of that trade. Market reporting has put Gulf LNG flows at a fraction of pre-conflict levels, or about 80% below earlier levels, and Reuters reported that only limited volumes of LNG from the Persian Gulf were reaching the global market. With fewer flexible cargoes available, European and Asian buyers are competing for the same spot supplies.
2. Traders fear renewed escalation. Reporting on Wednesday linked the price rise to concern that the United States could launch a new wave of strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections on 3 November, risking retaliation against energy infrastructure in the Gulf. The US warnings about strikes on Iran after the midterms form part of the same backdrop. Analysts described this as a risk premium — a higher price for the chance of disruption — rather than confirmed lost supply. That distinction matters: a risk premium can fall back if the feared escalation does not happen, even if the underlying supply position stays tight.
3. Storage is unusually thin for late October. Europe entered the heating season with gas storage at nearly 75% full, according to Reuters, with Germany's storage at around 60%, significantly below last year. Other storage data put EU storage at about 74.6% in late October, around 11 percentage points below the same period a year earlier. That is far short of the EU's reported goal of filling storage to 90% by 1 November. Europe's LNG imports were also 30% below last year for the week ending 9 October, according to Rystad Energy. Low storage does not by itself mean Europe will run out of gas, but it means there is less of a cushion if a cold spell or a further supply disruption arrives.
4. Winter demand is rising, and the weather is not helping. Heating demand rises seasonally in late October and November, and analysts cited forecasts for lower wind and solar generation, which would increase demand for gas-fired power. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said concerns about renewed escalation were driving prices higher, but added that weather forecasts were also providing support, as Europe was set for lower wind and solar generation. Mild weather so far has kept heating demand subdued, according to Rystad Energy, but mild weather alone cannot reverse the vulnerability created by thin storage and constrained imports.
5. Europe and Asia are competing in a tight spot market. With Gulf cargoes scarce, buyers must bid for LNG from other sources, including the United States, while the EU's planned total ban on Russian natural gas imports from January next year has added to price volatility, according to market reporting. At the same time, Europe is consuming less gas than in 2022 as renewables generate a larger share of electricity, which analysts say reduces the risk that a rise in European gas prices translates into electricity bill rises as severe as those seen in 2022. The market is therefore tight, but not in exactly the same position as four years ago.
The Strait of Hormuz and Europe's LNG Problem
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which much of the Gulf's oil and LNG must pass to reach world markets. For Europe, the direct issue is LNG: Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are major LNG exporters, and cargoes bound for Europe and Asia travel through the strait. When shipping through the strait is disrupted, those cargoes are delayed, rerouted or held back, and the global pool of available LNG shrinks. The Ras Tanura refinery attack claim and the wider Middle East escalation have kept that risk in focus for energy markets through October, with oil prices also rising sharply.
Europe cannot quickly replace Gulf LNG with pipeline gas alone. Pipeline supplies, storage withdrawals and LNG from other suppliers, including the United States, all help, but they take time to arrange and they compete with Asian demand. Analysts quoted in October reporting said LNG flows through the strait had fallen to a fraction of pre-conflict levels despite some increase in tanker transits after a temporary agreement in June. Until those flows recover in a sustained way, every new escalation headline tends to push European gas prices higher, because traders know the replacement cargoes are limited.
How Full Is Europe's Gas Storage Before Winter?
Storage is Europe's shock absorber. Gas is normally bought and stored during the summer, when demand is lower, and drawn down during winter. When storage enters winter well below its usual level, the market has less room to cope with a cold spell, an outage or a delayed cargo. That is the position reported this week: EU storage at nearly 75% full, Germany at around 60%, and the EU short of its 90% filling goal for 1 November.
Regulators and analysts draw an important distinction. Low storage raises the risk of high prices and pressure on the system; it does not by itself mean homes will run out of gas. Reporting in October noted that regulators did not expect an immediate shortage, while warning that a cold winter could force demand cuts of 7% or more and leave storage very low at the end of the season, making the refill for 2027 harder. Germany has also instructed the state-owned company SEFE to buy and store an additional 8 terawatt-hours of gas by 15 December, according to ING, cited in market reporting — a sign of how governments are trying to add cushion before the coldest months.
What Do European Gas Prices at €100 Mean for Household Bills?
Wholesale gas prices do not reach household bills instantly or in full. Many households are on fixed contracts, and governments can cushion the impact, so a one-day move to €100 does not automatically raise every bill by the same proportion. Over time, however, sustained high wholesale prices do feed through. Residential gas prices in EU capitals had already risen by 12% on average between February and September 2026, and electricity prices had risen by 4.2%, according to the Household Energy Price Index, cited in October reporting. Gas-fired power and dearer fuel still push costs up, even where fixed contracts delay the effect.
Industry feels the pressure more directly. High gas prices raise costs for energy-sensitive businesses, and market reporting has noted that some industries, such as chemicals and steel, may reduce output when prices stay high. In 2022, the same mechanism hurt businesses and most households and contributed to surging European inflation, according to MarketWatch. The UK picture is different in detail — the UK decision to scrap gas standing charges for millions of homes came in a separate 2026 budget announcement — but the underlying lesson is shared: when wholesale energy stays expensive, the cost eventually appears in bills, in industrial output, or in government support.
Households most exposed are generally those on variable tariffs, those who heat with gas, and those whose contracts renew while wholesale prices are high. The exact effect depends on the country, the supplier, the contract and any government measures in place, so readers should check their own tariff rather than assume the €100 benchmark applies directly to their bill. What the benchmark does signal is the direction of wholesale costs that suppliers will face when they buy gas for the winter.
European Gas Prices in 2022 vs 2026: Is This Another Energy Crisis?
Commissioner Jørgensen's warning — "another energy crisis" — echoes 2022, but the two episodes are not identical. In 2022, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine cut pipeline gas to Europe and drove the benchmark to a record of roughly €340 per MWh. In 2026, the shock comes mainly through disrupted LNG and the risk of escalation involving Iran, and the price, at €100, is well below the 2022 peak. Europe also enters this winter using less gas than in 2022, with renewables covering more electricity demand, which analysts say should soften, though not remove, the pass-through to bills.
That does not make the warning empty. Storage is thinner than it should be, the Gulf supply route is disrupted, and the diesel market is expected to stay tight into 2027. A difficult winter in Jørgensen's sense can mean high and volatile bills, pressure on industry and difficult choices for governments, even without the extreme prices of 2022. The honest comparison is therefore narrow: Europe faces a renewed energy price crisis driven by geopolitics and thin buffers, but it is not, on the evidence reported on 28 October, a repeat of the 2022 peak.
What Happens Next for European Gas Prices?
Four things will decide whether €100 is a brief spike or the start of a longer period of high prices. The first is the weather: a mild November would keep heating demand down and allow storage to last longer, while a cold spell would draw storage down faster. The second is the Strait of Hormuz: a sustained recovery in LNG flows would ease the tightest constraint in the market, while further disruption would keep Europe and Asia bidding for scarce cargoes. The third is escalation: whether, and how, the United States acts toward Iran after the 3 November midterms, and whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf is affected. The fourth is storage itself: how fast Europe draws down its reserves, and whether governments add purchases, as Germany has done through SEFE.
Analyst forecasts point to continued pressure rather than a quick return to pre-conflict prices. ING forecast an average of €73 per MWh over winter 2026/27, up from an earlier estimate of €65, according to market reporting, with a sell-off expected only from the second quarter of 2027. Consultancy Timera Energy warned that late-winter price rises could become acute if storage runs low, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the fourth quarter of 2026, with gradual reopening through the first quarter of 2027. Other analysts quoted by Reuters foresaw at least another year of high gas prices even if the conflict is resolved and winter proves mild, because Europe will need to restock storage depleted to record lows. Those are forecasts, not facts, and they will move with the weather and with events in the Gulf.
For now, the safest summary is the narrow one. European gas prices crossed €100 per MWh on 28 October 2026 for the first time since December 2022, driven by disrupted LNG, thin storage, winter demand and fear of escalation, trending per news coverage. Whether they stay there will depend on developments that no single day's trading can settle — in the Gulf, in the weather, and in the storage tanks Europe is counting on to get through winter.
Sources: Reuters, 28 October 2026; Euronews, 28 October 2026; The Wall Street Journal, 28 October 2026; MarketWatch, 28 October 2026; Intercontinental Exchange data as reported by Reuters; International Energy Agency and EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators figures as reported; Rystad Energy, Global Risk Management, ING and Timera Energy analysis as reported. Forecasts are reported as forecasts; the €100 level, storage figures and Commissioner Jørgensen's remarks are as reported on 28 October 2026.