India and Canada Push Toward a Trade Deal, With a $70 Billion Target by 2030

A relationship back on the fast track

India and Canada have spent October 2026 trying to convert a diplomatic thaw into a trade deal. The fifth formal round of negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was held in Ottawa from October 5 to 9, and almost immediately afterwards Canada sent its largest trade delegation to India in more than 30 years — close to 300 business delegates led by International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu, on a Team Canada Trade Mission running October 12 to 17. Both governments say they are working toward concluding the agreement by the end of 2026, and both have set an ambitious shared target: expanding two-way trade to 70 billion Canadian dollars a year by 2030, more than double the $30.4 billion in goods and services exchanged in 2025.

The speed of the process is itself the story. India and Canada formally relaunched CEPA negotiations during Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to India in March 2026, after a prolonged diplomatic freeze. Four rounds were completed before October, with the fourth concluding in New Delhi on September 18. The Ottawa round was preceded by talks between Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and Sidhu on the sidelines of the G20 Trade Ministers' Meeting in Milwaukee. The two ministers reviewed progress and discussed the Ottawa round, with Sidhu emphasising the importance of a mutually beneficial agreement by the end of 2026.

What is CEPA?

CEPA stands for Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. It is a broad trade deal that goes beyond cutting tariffs on goods. A full CEPA typically covers trade in goods and services, market access, rules of origin, investment, technical standards, and cooperation in areas such as technology and energy. For businesses, the practical difference between a narrow tariff deal and a comprehensive agreement is large: the first changes the price of a shipment, while the second changes the rules for investing, hiring, certifying products and moving services across borders.

The sectors both sides have named as priorities tell a story about what each country wants. Canada's delegation is focused on energy, critical minerals, aerospace, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, clean energy, technology, life sciences, agri-food and forestry. India is interested in the same list from the other direction: secure supplies of energy and critical minerals for its electric-vehicle and battery industries, investment in manufacturing, and access to Canadian technology and expertise. Canada says it already has more than $100 billion invested in India through companies and institutional investors, giving the talks a foundation of existing commercial ties. Our earlier coverage of the talks' crucial phase is in India-Canada trade pact enters a crucial phase.

The numbers behind the $70 billion target

Two-way merchandise trade alone stood at $13.6 billion in 2025, according to Canadian government figures cited in coverage of the talks. Canadian merchandise exports to India were valued at $3.9 billion, led by vegetables, mineral fuels and oils, and wood pulp. Merchandise imports from India reached $9.7 billion, with precious stones and metals, machinery and pharmaceuticals among the principal categories. Services trade added an even larger layer: Canadian service exports were valued at $15.2 billion in 2025, with education-related travel accounting for the largest share. The broader $30.4 billion figure for goods and services combined is the base from which the $70 billion target would more than double trade by 2030.

That target is ambitious, and both sides know it. Doubling trade in five years would require not just a signed agreement but real changes in how businesses operate: new supply chains, new investment, and new familiarity between companies that have often looked to other markets first. Canada's motivation is partly strategic. Ottawa is seeking to diversify its export base away from heavy dependence on the United States, and India — one of the world's fastest-growing large economies — is central to Canada's Indo-Pacific Strategy. India's motivation is complementary: diversifying its own supply chains and attracting investment and technology as it builds out manufacturing and clean energy.

The hard part: agriculture and certainty

Agriculture is expected to be one of the most difficult areas of the negotiations. Canada wants predictable, long-term access to India's market for pulses and fertilisers, along with technical standards and adequate visas for workers. India has changed import duties on pulses several times in recent years, prompting Canadian farm groups to seek enforceable commitments against sudden policy changes rather than tariff cuts that could be reversed at short notice. That distinction — between a promise and an enforceable commitment — is often where trade negotiations succeed or stall.

There are other sensitivities on both sides. Trade deals create winners and losers within each economy, and negotiators have to balance exporters who want market access against domestic producers who fear competition. The fact that both governments have set a year-end deadline does not remove those tensions; it concentrates them. The fifth round in Ottawa covered the full breadth of a comprehensive framework, and while both sides describe the momentum as positive, they have not publicly disclosed the outstanding differences — a normal sign that the hardest bargaining is happening behind closed doors.

Why this matters beyond the two countries

An India-Canada deal would land in a world where trade is being reshaped by geopolitics. The United States' tariff policies, the war in the Middle East and its effect on energy prices, and the competition over critical minerals have all pushed countries to diversify their trading relationships. For Canada, a deal with India is part of a broader effort to reduce reliance on a single dominant partner — a theme also visible in its critical-minerals pact with Australia. For India, the talks sit alongside a growing economy that the International Monetary Fund has continued to upgrade, as covered in our report on the IMF's India growth forecast. A CEPA would give both countries a rules-based framework for a relationship that has already begun to grow quickly.

What happens next

The immediate test is whether the ministerial momentum from Ottawa and the trade mission translates into a finalised framework in the coming weeks. No date for a sixth round has been publicly announced. Businesses watching the talks will look for three signals: a joint statement narrowing the list of outstanding issues, movement on agriculture and market-access rules, and any indication that the year-end deadline is firm rather than aspirational. If the deal is concluded, the ratification and implementation process will take longer still — trade agreements must be translated into domestic law and regulation before companies feel their effects. But the direction of travel is clear: two countries that spent years in a diplomatic deep freeze are now racing, together, toward the most ambitious trade target either has set in years.

Key facts

• The fifth round of India-Canada CEPA talks was held in Ottawa, October 5–9, 2026.
• Both sides aim to conclude the agreement by the end of 2026.
• Target: two-way trade of C$70 billion a year by 2030, up from $30.4 billion in 2025.
• Canada's Team Canada Trade Mission to India (October 12–17) is its largest in over 30 years, with nearly 300 delegates.
• Priority sectors: energy, critical minerals, aerospace, AI, advanced manufacturing, agri-food, life sciences.